After 13 months of uptrend, large-size TV panels ushered in a full decline after entering the third quarter. In September, the decline of various sizes of panels ranged from 14% to 32%, setting the largest monthly decline in the history of the TFT-LCD industry.
This makes the panic gradually spread in the industry. It seems that some investment institutions even pessimistically judge that the price of LCD panels will fall below the cost line at the beginning of next year.
This judgment is not groundless. Take two representative TV products, 32-inch and 65-inch, as examples. According to data released by Omdia, 32-inch panels were quoted at US$51 in September, a decrease of 33.7%, and 65-inch panels were quoted at US$276, a decrease of 14.8%.
Statistics from DSCC, a market research agency, show that in the third quarter of this year, the total cost of a 32-inch HD panel was approximately US$43, and the total cost of a 65-inch UHD panel was US$213.
If you look at the situation in August and September, the monthly decline of medium-sized panels is generally about 20%, and the monthly decline of large-sized panels is about 10%. Inch panels can penetrate the cost line. Entering December, the prices of 55-inch and 65-inch panels will also fall below the cost line.
But in fact, since October, the decline in LCD panel prices has shrunk significantly. Omdia's October panel price and November quotation forecasts pointed out that entering October, the decline in TV panel prices has converged, with a drop of between 7-13%.
Omdia predicts that the decline of TV panels in November will shrink to 10%, and the decline will converge to 5% in December. It will see 32-inch, 43-inch and other medium-sized TV panels stop falling as soon as February-March next year. With this calculation, the panel price will remain above the cost line.
Of course, for other manufacturers except the panel duo, even if the panel price does not break through the cost line, its operating performance is still not optimistic.