In June 2017, LCD panel prices began to fall, and the decline range lasted for one year. The price of the mainstream size 43吋 fell from 149 dollars to 80 dollars, 32 吋 price fell from 73 dollars to 45 dollars, and the 65 吋 panel fell downwards with a monthly rate of 10 dollars, becoming the hardest hit in this wave of LCD cycle low tide. . For other sizes of panels, prices have fallen by about 40% in the past year, and TV panel makers have generally fallen into losses.
However, since July this year, panel prices have gradually stabilized and rebounded. The demand side has ushered in the traditional peak season. Over the past year, the panel price cuts have touched the industry cost line. The short-term capacity release of the supply side is limited, and the panel price will be welcomed. A wave of price reversal, the relevant panel companies have the opportunity to usher in a wave of profit margins brought by rising prices.
Li Yaqun, an analyst at Qunzhi Consulting, said that in the third quarter, the market demand for stocks in the global market was increasing. At the same time, panel makers actively adjusted the size structure to drive the supply and demand of LCD TV panels around the world. It is expected that the price of small-size panels will rebound slightly in July, and the price of large-size panels will stop falling.
Small and medium-sized panel prices have rebounded
After nearly a year of continuous downturn, the TV LCD panel has been dry for a long time, and the price has finally begun to rise.
According to the research report of Weiyun.com (AVC), it is expected that the price of 32-inch and 40-inch TV panels will increase slightly in July 2018; the price of 43-inch and 55-inch panels will stop falling; the price of 49-inch and 50-inch panels will remain stable; The 65-inch panel price will be lowered by $5. And in the trend of panel prices rebounding, the TV market will also have price fluctuations. Especially for small and medium sizes such as 32 inches, the price increase is a high probability event.
The price of small and medium-sized panels has rebounded. Innolux has opened the first shot of price increases.
Ovi Cloud analysts said that the third quarter is the peak season for the whole machine manufacturers to stock up, driving demand for TV LCD panels to increase, prices began to rise. TV panel prices will continue to pick up in the third quarter.
The driving force behind the TV LCD panel industry's recovery is not the domestic market, but the overseas market. After the domestic market has passed 6.18, July to August is the off-season of the market, and the inventory is high, the demand for TV LCD panels is not high. However, the overseas market is in the peak season for stocking, and the demand for LCD panels is more urgent. Li Yaqin, deputy general manager of Qunzhi Consulting, revealed that at the end of the second quarter, the color TV inventory in the North American market was relatively small. Samsung, LG and TCL were all stocking for the fourth quarter, which drove the price of LCD panels to rebound.
IHS senior research director Xie Qinyi said that TV panel prices have fallen by 12 months, while the second quarter's decline exceeded expectations, not only fell below the total cost, 40吋/43吋 is the cost of cash, as for 32吋, 65吋, etc. Wait, the price has even fallen below the cost of cash, for the panel factory, the price is already falling. The panel plant's loss pressure is very large, so the panel factory in June actively adjusted the product mix to reduce output.
For example, BOE and Huaxing Optoelectronics have reduced production for some size products. The capacity of some 8.5-generation plants has changed from 32吋 to 55吋. On the one hand, the 32-inch panel supply is reduced, and the larger 55-inch panel can be replaced. Multi-panel production capacity.
From the perspective of the overall supply chain, panel stocks have also returned to normal water levels. In the past, the 32-inch panel of BOE and Huaxing Optoelectronics, the 40-inch panel of Innolux, and the water level of the 43-inch panel of BOE were all high. Through the promotion and capacity adjustment, the inventory at the end of the second season returned to the normal water level.
On the other hand, the third season is the traditional peak season, brand manufacturers are actively starting to stock up, demand has increased significantly, and are willing to accept the panel factory to raise prices, so that panel prices rose smoothly.
For this round of TV panel price increase, BOE Liu Xiaodong said that there are three reasons: First, the panel factory's product structure adjustment, such as BOE to reduce the production of small and medium-sized TV panels such as 32 inches, while increasing the output of large-size TV panels of 65 inches and above; The second is that the panel factory controls the utilization rate (capacity utilization rate); the third is the traditional peak season in the third quarter of each year, the demand increases, and the inventory has been exhausted.
Qunzhi Consulting Li Yaqin pointed out that the growth of the TV market in the first half of the year was mainly concentrated on large size, and LCD panel manufacturers turned more capacity to large-size panels in order to make profits. For example, Innolux switched to 65 inches and BOE switched to 55 inches. The panel manufacturer's capacity structure is biased towards large-size panels, resulting in a sharp drop in the supply of small and medium-sized panels such as 32-inch, 39-inch, and 43-inch. However, the demand for small and medium-sized products in the overseas market has not decreased, which has led to an increase in the price of small and medium-sized products.
Li Yaqin expects that the phased rebound in the price of this round of TV panels will continue throughout the third quarter. Because there are many new high-generation LCD panel production lines in production in the second half of this year and next year, there are still two years of "hardship" in the TV panel industry.
From the perspective of the global market, the situation of oversupply is still growing. It is understood that the first phase of the Rainbow Xianyang 8.6-generation line project will undergo a half-year mass production climb, and the monthly production capacity will reach 60,000 pieces. The capacity of BOE Hefei 10.5 generation line and CLP Chengdu 8.6 generation line is also increasing. With the continuous release of these new production lines and the production capacity of the original production line, the risk of overcapacity of TV LCD panels will further increase.
Therefore, the recovery of this small and medium-sized price is mainly the result of seasonal demand growth, which cannot determine the overall panel price trend. Next, overcapacity is the norm in the TV LCD panel industry. How to not fall into low-price competition and ensure profit is a difficult problem for major panel manufacturers.